Archive for December 24, 2011
World coffee supplies down slightly
Global coffee production will fall slightly as bad growing conditions in several major producing nations outweigh higher-than-average crops in some others.
World coffee production for the 2010-11 growing season is estimated to be 127.4 million 60-kilogram bags, a downward revision from September’s forecast of 129.5 million, according to the International Coffee Organization. Spot prices for Robusta coffee have been edging upward since hitting a yearly low in October, hovering around $2.70 a pound by late November.
Conditions in several countries are affecting prices:
• Shipments from Brazil, the global leader in coffee exports, in November was 3 million bags, down about 6 percent from November 2010. October shipments were 3.09 million bags, down 16 percent from October 2010. A heavy frost in Brazil is said to have the potential to affect production next year.
• Colombia, the world’s leading supplier of high-end Arabica beans, will fall below production targets for the third consecutive year due to heavy rains. Production is estimated at 8 million bags, 1 million less than the goal, according to the head of the nation’s coffee growers’ federation.
• Output in Guatemala, Central America’s second-largest producer, will fall almost 9 percent, to 3.6 million bags, also due to rains. El Salvador’s production will fall more than 21 percent, to 1.45 million bags.
• In Vietnam, the world’s leading exporter of Robusta beans, output is predicted to be 18.5 million bags, a drop of 5.4 percent.
Tanzania, a major supplier of Arabica beans, is expected to produce 45,000 tons of coffee this growing season , a drop of 20 percent from last year.
• On the other hand, favorable weather is expected to boost yields elsewhere in Africa. The Ethiopian crop is predicted to increase 27 percent to 6.35 million bags, while Ivory Coast’s coffee crop is forecast to surge 60 percent, to 1.6 million bags.
It’s unclear to what extent current coffee prices are related to supply. Industry observers have suggested that volatility in commodities futures markets are at least partly to blame for price fluctuations.
Source: Specialty Coffee
